Might consider using an IPO to get out

It will be almost Thanksgiving before the world finds out exactly what Vivendi plans to do with its stake in NBC Universal.

But despite sagging ratings at NBCU's flagship television network, it has a big decision to make. The 20 percent ownership in NBCU it got when General Electric acquired Vivendi's entertainment interests is said to be worth as much as $5 billion.

Until that decision is announced, however, there's been nothing but radio silence from both NBCU and Vivendi.

Both Vivendi leader Jean-Bernard Levy and NBCU chief executive Jeff Zucker won't reveal any single card in their hands, but some observers say they see Vivendi opting to move on from the deal, and could even use an initial public offering to maximize their value.

The problem is that there has been practically no IPOs during the current economic climate, and it's unclear whether the stock market will have stabilized enough by November to push forward with such a plan. One way or the other, the French media company is quickly recovering from what was some strong over-expansion in the 1990s, and has since stabilized, especially after merging its gaming division with Activision in 2007 for $18.8 billion.

Vivendi has had the option to cash out of NBC Universal since 2006 at "fair market value," but has so far chosen not to do anything. However, the economy seems to be on the path to recovery, and fair market value might be a little more enticing come the end of the year, hence rumors floating around about what Vivendi might do.

The merger brought the huge Universal library to the NBC fold, along with some cable channels including Syfy and USA Network. It also allowed NBC to follow rival ABC into the theme park business with control of five theme parks, including the Universal Studios theme parks in Hollywood and Orlando.