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ABC Poised To Win Final Week Of Sweeps

Strong 'Dancing' outing could push CBS out of top spot

If Wednesday's overnights stay the same as they did last week, CBS could finish its third week in a row of November sweeps with a 7.3 rating/12 share.

Although that has been more than enough to lead CBS to wins the first three weeks of sweeps, it might not be enough to wrap up November.

ABC is set to finish with a 7.5/13 in average overnight ratings that exclude non-news, non-event programming. That is if ABC's Wednesday's programming on the final night of November sweeps, which includes "Modern Family," "The Middle" and "Eastwick" matches its previous episodes.

All of it is coming as ABC had an exceptional finale for "Dancing With the Stars." The four episodes that aired of the reality show on the final week of sweeps earned a 12.5/19, according to Fast National ratings from The Nielsen Co. That's 9 percent better than the 11.4/17 three episodes of "Dancing" picked up the week before, and is expected to take up four of the top five slots of network programming for the week.

That pushed regular weekly winner "NCIS" on CBS to fourth place with a 12.3/20, matching its average of the past three weeks, and 1.6 percent better from its overall average for the season.

CBS has been dominating the fall schedule so far, winning the first three weeks of sweeps, and winning eight of 11 weeks of the overall 2009-10 season. Before Wednesday, ABC is running an 8.6/14 average, 28 percent better than its 6.7/11 the previous week.

But even the slightest fluctuation could still give CBS the win. And the Eye has its big guns ready to go with new episodes of "Criminal Minds" and "CSI: New York." If either of those shows even improve themselves a few percentage points, it could be just enough to push CBS over the top. Also, a weaker performance from shows, including the now-cancelled "Eastwick," could cause CBS to slip ahead.

No matter what happens, CBS will end up winning November sweeps overall. Before Wednesday's numbers are factored in, CBS is averaging a 7.3/12 while ABC has a 7.1/12. But even if it matches its past Wednesday numbers, ABC is expected to fall to a 6.9 household rating while CBS will pretty much hold its ground.

Fox is expected to finish in third place with a 4.2/6 while NBC could very well end in fourth place with a 4.0/6.

The CW is already out of the picture, averaging a 1.8/3 over sweeps.

About the Author

Michael Hinman is the founder and editor-in-chief for Airlock Alpha and the entire GenreNexus. He owns Nexus Media Group Inc., the parent corporation of the GenreNexus and is a veteran print journalist. He lives in Tampa, Fla.
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