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ABC Not Expected To Return A Lot Of New Shows

'Body of Proof' powers toward renewal, but not much else does

ABC has already renewed a number of shows, but there are still some big question marks as the network winds down the season.

Despite mostly striking out with new television shows this year, the Disney-owned network did find a hit in "Body of Proof." Our numbers below are through the end of March, which had only one episode for the show, but later airings have shown some solid stability, and it could still finish in the top 10 shows for the year.

The same can't be said for most of the rest of the new shows, which just tanked one after another.

SAFE BET
Body of Proof
It had one of the strongest series premiere of the season, and only lost a small percentage of its audience since. There's no doubt that ABC will give another year to this show which will likely end up the network's highest-rated scripted program.

Desperate Housewives
Here is a show that will probably never die even though its audience is down more than 7 percent from the year before. However, it's a strong Sunday performer for the network that still carries some leftover buzz from its glory days.

Extreme Makeover
Not Sunday's strongest show for the network, but one that improved slightly over last year, and is still awfully cheap to produce -- meaning it's a terrific money-maker for ABC. Plus, it creates a lot of feel-good vibes that make people want to like your other programming.

Grey's Anatomy
It lost 14 percent of its audience from the year before, and it seems the best days are definitely far behind for this drama. Yet, it still creates a lot of female viewers in key demographics, and is ABC's forth highest-rated show, so we'll be seeing more behind-the-scenes hospital drama for at least another year.

Secret Millionaire
Strong premiere numbers helped put this show on the map, and the best part is that it's retained more than 88 percent of its largest audience each and every week. Plus, it's cheap to produce, meaning this is bringing in a tidy profit for ABC.

STILL BOUNCING
America's Funniest Home Videos
This perennial favorite lost about 10 percent of its audience from last year, but there is a lot of history here, and it's cheap to make. Plus, it doesn't appear to be dragging down ABC's Sunday schedule. In fact, it actually seems to help it in some strange way, so it's likely this will get renewed.

Better With You
It's ranked No. 14 on ABC and No. 50 overall, but it's still a show that has some positive buzz. However, it's lower ratings really stand out, especially between "The Middle" and "Modern Family," both of which have had major gains over their freshmen seasons, and which are doing up to 60 percent better. But "The Middle" and "Modern Family" didn't exactly have stellar ratings last year, so maybe ABC is willing to give this show a chance.

Brothers & Sisters
It really has to die sometime, but probably not this coming year. It's lost more than 9 percent of its audience from last year, and there seems to be almost no buzz surrounding this show. But ABC is pretty loyal, even when it shouldn't be, and it is in the network's top 10. So expect it back.

Shark Tank
Not a great freshman season, but a couple episodes this year are nearly 5 percent better than last year, so why not? It's cheap to produce, which means a pretty good profit margin ... and a good chance for renewal.

Wipeout
An interesting experiment to bring a summer series to the regular season, but not necessarily a bad move. It's even with "Cougar Town" in the ratings, and cheaper to produce, so maybe ABC will keep it in reserves as a mid-season replacement (again).

ABOUT TO POP
Detroit 1-8-7
I want to say this show is a goner. Its Audience Loyalty Index rating is a 68.6, meaning that of all the people who have showed up for at least one episode, less than 70 percent return each week (which is not that great). The only thing that makes me keep it on this list is that there are some small lights of hope peeking through the dark clouds, and all depends what ABC sees in its ordered pilots.

Mr. Sunshine
This is kind of in the same boat as "Detroit 1-8-7." Its Audience Loyalty Index rating is horrendous -- 60.8 -- but yet, ABC might see something in this show no one else does. I mean, there is Matthew Perry, after all. Could that be enough?

GONER
My Generation
There has been no official announcement on this, but ABC stopped ordering episodes, and it hasn't been on the schedule for quite a while. When it was there, it averaged a 3.0 rating/6 share, according to Fast National overnight ratings from The Nielsen Co. That put it right near the bottom of ABC's schedule, even now.

No Ordinary Family
Considering one of the show's stars is already exploring other pilots, it's safe to say this one is long gone. Less than 64 percent of the total audience that tried one episode have come back each week for more, and that has shown in the continuously sliding ratings.

Off the Map
Some observers say this show still has a chance, but I don't agree. There were high expectations for this show that were never, ever met. There is no way a show like this can really grow its audience (I mean, it ain't a procedural). So expect this to be off the schedule come next year.

Skating With the Stars
If this comes back, I'd be shocked. Shocked. Although it does have a similar-sized audience to "Shark Tank," which I believe will come back. The fact is, it gets a quarter of the audience of "Dancing With the Stars," and it's hard to get out from under that shadow when your name ends with "with the stars."

V
The sad part is that "V" got really good toward the end of this season, right up to an explosive season finale. However, it's more like a series finale, because it was too little, too late. ABC gave this show a chance last season when it ordered a new season. But the numbers this year are 38 percent lower, so there really isn't a chance.

Whole Truth
Want to know why this show is here? Look at what I wrote for "My Generation." No use re-inventing the wheel here.

ALREADY RENEWED
The Bachelor
Castle
Cougar Town
Dancing With the Stars
The Middle
Modern Family
Private Practice

OFFICIALLY GONE
Supernanny

Top ABC Shows (% Last Year) -- Overall -- [Audience Loyalty Index]
Through March 31

1.    Dancing With the Stars (+15.9)     2    12.2/19    [NA]
2.    Body of Proof (NA)    5    9.0/15    [NA]
3.    Grey's Anatomy (-14.0)    12    7.3/12    [82.1]
4.    Desperate Housewives (-7.2)    13    7.3/11    [90.5]
5.    Castle (-0.2)    18    6.9/12    [83]
6.    Modern Family (+22.8)    19    6.9/11    [80.0]
7.    Secret Millionaire (NA)    22    6.6/11    [NA]
8.    The Bachelor (-13.2)    25    6.5/10    [69.2]
9.    Brothers & Sisters (-9.2)    36    5.5/9    [86.5]
10.    Private Practice (-12.1)    38    5.4/9    [75.5]

Bottom ABC Shows (% Last Year) -- Overall -- [ALI]
Through March 31

1.    Supernanny (-8.3)    85    2.8/5    [86.1]
2.    Whole Truth (NA)    80    3.0/5    [89.4]
3.    My Generation (NA)    79    3.0/6    [90.9]
4.    V (-38.1)    74    3.3/5    [82.0]
5.    Off the Map (NA)    72    3.3/6    [66.2]

Fast Nationals usually provide a snapshot of what Americans are watching by pulling numbers from the top urban markets that include both live viewing and same-day timeshifted viewing. A rating point generally represents more than 1.1 million households while the share indicates the percentage of televisions turned on that was tuned to the specific program. These numbers typically shift when final ratings are issued.

Data collected from The Nielsen Co., as distributed by Zap2it. GenreNexus tracks non-news, non-event programming, and figures for this story reflect airing of new episodes only. For more information on the Audience Loyalty Index, click here.

About the Author

Michael Hinman is the founder and editor-in-chief for Airlock Alpha and the entire GenreNexus. He owns Nexus Media Group Inc., the parent corporation of the GenreNexus and is a veteran print journalist. He lives in Tampa, Fla.
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